Економічний аналіз попиту на плодоовочеконсервну продукцію

Розроблено рекомендації щодо оцінювання місткості територіальних ринків, запропоновано методику аналізу сегментів ринку. Досліджено проблеми прогнозування попиту в ринкових умовах господарювання, побудовано багаточинникову економіко-математичну модель і модель короткотермінового прогнозування на основі поєднання логістичних методів та експертних оцінок.

Визначено основні шляхи вдосконалення методики аналізу впливу попиту на фінансові результати діяльності підприємства. Основні результати праці впроваджені на досліджуваних підприємствах консервної галузі.

Ключові слова: плодоовочеконсервна продукція, попит, аналіз, фінансові результати, ринок, прогнозування, місткість ринку, споживач, сегмент.

 

 

Голяш И. Д. Экономический анализ спроса на плодоовощеконсервную продукцию. – Рукопись.

Диссертация на соискание ученой степени кандидата экономических наук по специальности 08. 06. 04 – бухгалтерский учет, анализ и аудит. – Тернопольская академия народного хозяйства, Тернополь, 2002.

В диссертации исследованы вопросы усовершенствования методики и организации анализа спроса на плодоовощеконсервную продукцию.

В работе раскрыты роль и место спроса в сложном механизме функционирования рыночной экономики. Выявлены причины падения спроса на плодоовощеконсервную продукцию, определены пути их устранения.

Разработаны рекомендации в отношении оценки емкости территориальных рынков, предложена методика анализа сегментов рынка. Исследованы проблемы прогнозирования спроса в рыночных условиях хозяйствования, построены многофакторная экономико-математическая модель и модель краткосрочного прогнозирования на основе соединения логистических методов и экспертных оценок.

Определены главные пути усовершенствования методики анализа влияния спроса на финансовые результаты деятельности предприятия. Основные результаты работы внедрены на исследуемых предприятиях консервной отрасли.

Ключевые слова: плодоовощеконсервная продукция, спрос, анализ, финансовые результаты, рынок, прогнозирование, ёмкость рынка, потребитель, сегмент.

 

 

Holiash I. D. Economic analysis of demand for canned fruit and vegetable production. – Manuscript.

Dissertation for a Candidate of Economic Sciences Degree on the Speciality 08. 06. 04 – accounting, analysis and audit. – Ternopil. Academy of National Economy, Ternopil, 2002.

The dissertation studies the question of improvement of demand analysis methods and their organisation for canned fruit and vegetable production.

The paper reveals the role and place of demand in a complicated mechanism of market economy; examines the peculiarities of organisation and technology of canned fruit and vegetable manufacture; shows their influence on demand forming; determines the main trends of its growth.

Comparison of existing analysis system in Ukraine and investigations practiced by market economies proves the necessity of demand analysis on micro- and macrolevels.

The ways of improvment of information basis of demand analysis, that help to raise the quality of managerial decisions, are suggested.

Having revealed the interdependence between market capacity, market analysis and minimum demand, market capacity analysis is carried out. Rating of local markets capacity of canned fruit and vegetable production, which is based on dinstance method, is received by means of comparative analysis. This rating gives an opportunity to take into account not only absolute indices quantity but also their proximity to the standard.

The thesis proved the necessity not only to determine the quantitative characteristics of market capacity, but also to find out stable distinctions between regions according to consumers types.

The regions in the paper are classified according to their rating and idices of relative potential and results of this classification are compared.

Market geographical segmentation reveals four homogeneous regional groups; shows peculiarities of consumers depending on the intensity of consumption and amount of realisation of canned fruit and vegetable production per capita.

Following a demographic segmentation main family types are revealed, depending on per capita income and elastic demand.

In the paper existing methods of demand prognostication are analysed, their applicability on modern stage of market economy in Ukraine is stated, and problems of their introduction for study of demand for canned fruit and vegetable production are mentioned.

It's suggested to perform the prognostication of demand by means of two methods: method of economis and mathematical modeling and logistic method in combination with rating of experts.

In order to buit economic and mathematical model of demand, equation of plural regression is recomended, where demand stands for function and factors determining its level for variables.

It's suggested that modeling of state of demand under certain conditions of surroundings are to be combined with sale rating of particular enterprise.

In the paper a list of possible logistic criteria and variants of their rating are presented and prognostic of demand for enterprise output is based on them.

The paper also shows the ways of improvement of method of demand analysis and its influence on financial results of the enterprise and offers to use the realisation idices of finished fruits production. in the process of analysis. Method of income analysis and profitability depending on demand, prices, manufacturing and marketing expenses are to be used in canning industry.

Analysis of lossless manufacture proposes to calculate the alteration of lossless point by changing the factors; to determine essential production capacity to obtaine planned income, to choose the most advantageous variants of prices, range of goods, and optimum production capacity.

Examined peculiarities of risk analysis method of unclaimed products in canning industry, determined the ways of its improvement and noted that this risk can be avoided by stimulating the realisation of products and increasing the number of consumers.

Some proposals and recommendations of the given scientific investigation are implemented in plants work practice. The main statements of the dissertation are reflected in reports at the scientific and practical conference “Problems of planned industrial production of market economy” (Chmelnitsky, 2000), scientific and practical conference “Direction of activity native production: theory and practice, problems of specialists studies” (Chmelnitsky, 2001) and international scientific and practical conference, devoted to the 30-th anniversary of Economic Analysis Department “Economic analysis of Ukraine on beginning XXI century” (Ternopil, 2001).

On the results of the investigation 14 scientific works were published which covered total 2, 85 printed pages.

The dissertation consist of introduction, three parts, conclusions and proposals, list of used reference, appendixes. The amount of thesis main text is 197 pages of typewritten text. There are 42 tables, 17 pictures, 12 appendices in the thesis. The reference list contains 153 titles.

The key words: canned fruit and vegetable production, demand, analysis, financial results, market, prognostication, market capacity, consumer, segment.